The Australian dollar has found support yet again on a bounce from the 0.7325 region, as the 0.7350 handle looks to be the beginning of massive support. We have formed a hammer for the week, just like we did the week before and several weeks before that. Overall, I believe that the Australian dollar is trying to find its way higher, but obviously we have some churning to do in this general vicinity. However, for the longer-term trader, this provides a significant opportunity as a bounce from here could very well lead to the 0.76 handle, and then eventually the 0.80 level, realizing quite nice gains.

The alternate scenario of course is that we break down through these hammers and go looking towards the 0.72 handle. However, the resiliency of this market suggests to me that the path of least resistance is probably going to be higher, eventually. Keep in mind that the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to gold and of course the tariffs on China, as Australia provides China with so many of its raw materials.

It should be pointed out that a huge portion of the gains for the week were realized on Friday after President Trump tweeted that he wishes the Federal Reserve would reconsider raising interest rates, which through some doubt on the US dollar in general. However, he doesn’t have the power to make that happen, so I think this was the excuse that the market was looking for to rally anyway.

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