GBP/USD Daily Forecast

Monday, Mar 12 2018

There were no major data releases from the UK yesterday. The European Union stepped up efforts on Monday to create a more unified and cheaper capital market by next year when it faces the loss of Britain, the bloc’s biggest financial center. The EU’s executive European Commission set out its latest plans for a “capital markets union” (CMU), a project initially focused on reducing heavy reliance of company funding on bank loans, but now made more pressing by Brexit. “By the time Brexit happens, the preconditions for a true single market for capital need to be in place,” European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis told a news conference. It is critical that EU states and the European Parliament get all measures “past the finishing line” ahead of elections for the EU assembly next year, Dombrovksis said.

Many continental European companies and listed funds use banks and asset managers in London. Britain is set to leave the EU in March 2019 and the future relationship between its giant financial services industry and the EU remains unclear. The latest EU proposals include common rules for the covered bond market, a 2.1 trillion euro ($2.6 trillion) sector whose funding role in countries including Germany and Denmark the bloc wants replicated more broadly. The EU executive has now proposed 12 measures to create a CMU but only three have been adopted, prompting one senior EU lawmaker to predict the project could founder.

Focus of tomorrow's session will be on UK Annual Budget release. In the US session CPI figures will be released. Analysts predict 0.2% increase.

Figures to watch:

Annual Budget Release (Tuesday 12:30)

CPI (Tuesday 14:30)

GBP/USD Daily Forecast - 13 March

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