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GBP/USD continued struggling as trade wars, Brexit, Carney influenced it. The UK government managed to overcome yet another vote in parliament on the Brexit bill, but this is not necessarily a good thing, as chances for a hard Brexit are still real.

US President Trump rattled markets with yet another contemplation of slapping further tariffs on China. The pound was carried along to lower ground.

What’s next?The EU Summit on Brexit and final GDP are the centre of attention.

Major events in the coming week:

  1. High Street Lending: Tuesday, 8:30. This measure of lending reflects around two-thirds of mortgages. In April, they reported a level of 38K, up from the previous month.
  2. CBI Realized Sales: Tuesday, 10:00. The Confederation of British Industry provided a positive surprise in May with an upbeat score of 11. Another small increase could be seen for June.
  3. EU Summit: Thursday and Friday. Leaders of the European Union meet to discuss various topics and Brexit tops the agenda – specifically agreements on the Irish border and the Customs Union. Pound will remain pressured. In additions, the EU Summit will likely include a discussion on the trade spat with the US.
  4. GfK Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 23:01. The survey showed a slight improvement, up to -7 points, but negative figure still reflects pessimism among consumers. No changes are likely now.
  5. Final GDP: Friday, 8:30. The British economy grew by only 0.1% q/q and 1.2% y/y according to the first and second reads. The final release will likely confirm the same figures.
  6. Current Account: Friday, 8:30. Britain had a current account deficit of 18.4 billion pounds in the last quarter of 2017. A deficit is likely also for Q1 2018 and it may have widened.
  7. Net Lending to Individuals: Friday, 8:30. Net lending stood at 5.7 billion pounds in April, better than expected suggesting more economic activity. Another positive month is likely.
  8. M4 Money Supply: Friday, 8:30. The amount of money in circulation grew by 0.2% in April, above expectations and after two months of drops. Another modest rise could be seen for May.
  9. Mortgage Approvals: Friday, 8:30. Contrary to the High Street figure, the overall number of mortgages decreased to 62K in April. A minor rise could be seen now.

(All times are GMT)

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