EUR/USD Daily Forecast - 27 March

There were no data releases from Eurozone yesterday. The Bundesbank President repeated that the ECB’s policy normalization should start soon, adding again that expectations for a rate hike around the middle of next year are “not unrealistic”. No real surprise there, although there seems a slight delay in the road map towards a rate hike, after Praet recently seemed to hint that he is comfortable with market expectations for a move “next spring”. If mega-hawk Weidmann is aiming more for the middle of next year, there doesn’t seem to be too much of a hurry, even if the general road map for the phasing out of policy measures remains intact, despite trade war jitters and market turbulences. Read more...

GBP/USD Daily Forecast - 27 March

There were no data releases from the UK yesterday. David Davis’s Brexit department suffered a blow as the lead civil servant tasked with finding a solution for the Irish border quit after less than a year. Simon Case is leaving his role to become Prince William’s private secretary. He is to be replaced by his deputy, Brendan Threlfall. As director general Northern Ireland and Ireland in the Department for Exiting the EU, Case led a team of key officials working on what is arguably the most challenging issue facing the department.


AUD/USD Daily Forecast - 27 March

There were no data releases from Australia yesterday, with focus on commodity prices. Trade developments, risk appetite and position adjustment are liable to dominate the gold price discussion during the week ahead, with the U.S. interest rate debate on hold for the very short term. Gold moved lower during the first half of the past week before reversing and posting significant net gains – with five-week highs near $1,350 per ounce – under the influence of a sharp deterioration in risk appetite.


EUR/USD Daily Forecast - 21 March

Focus of the yesterday's session was on ZEW Economic Sentiment figures. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany decreased sharply in March 2018. The index has fallen by 12.7 points compared to the previous month, now standing at 5.1 points (long-term average: 23.6 points). The percentage of experts anticipating a decline over the coming six months has risen by 7.2 per cent to 12.9 per cent. “Concerns over a US-led global trade conflict have made the experts more cautious in their prognoses. The strong euro is also hampering the economic outlook for Germany, a nation reliant on exports. Combined with the experts’ continued positive assessment of the current situation, however, the outlook is still largely positive,” comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach. Read more...

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