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Euro stronger ahead of ECB meeting

The euro rose against the U.S. dollar on Monday, just shy of the three-year high touched last week, as market participants awaited the outcome of the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday for possible clues to future shifts in the bank’s monetary policy. News of U.S. senators striking a deal to lift a three-day government shutdown failed to give a lasting boost to the weak dollar.

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ECB: A rate hike before end of quantitative easing?

The euro zone is enjoying one of its best moments since the financial crisis with growth rates outstripping those of the United States. In the third quarter of 2017, the 19-member area grew 0.6 percent from the previous quarter and 2.5 percent on a yearly basis; the U.S. rose 2.3 percent year-on-year. "The euro zone economy is firing on all cylinders," Nick Gartside, international chief information officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management said. "Given this very strong growth backdrop, the risk is that the market begins to price in European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes sooner." At the moment, markets don't expect any rate hikes in 2018 and the ECB has left the door open to increasing its stimulus if the economic conditions shift.

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ECB left interest rates unchanged

ECB left it monetary policy and its forward guidance unchanged from its last meeting. Then it announced that its asset purchases would be halved starting in January to 30 bln euros a month through September 2018.  The ECB reiterated that official rates will be remain at their present level well past the end of the net asset purchases.  It indicated that QE would continue until the end of September, but will "run until the inflation path is sustainably adjusted.  The ECB sees domestic generated price pressures as continuing to be "muted." This means ta sustained uptrend in price trend remains elusive.

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Draghi says there is a growing confidence in economy

Mario Draghi gave the keynote speech at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress this morning in which he focused on the strong outlook for the Eurozone economy and how his monetary policy is playing a vital role. The speech was peppered with upbeat phrases and adjectives like solid, robust, unabated, endogenous propagation, resilient, remarkable and ongoing. According to Draghi.

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