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GBP/USD Weekly Forecast - 30 July - 3 August

It is the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to save Sterling from slumping lower as it is expected to hike rates next Thursday when the MPC meets for regular monetary policy review releasing the quarterly macroeconomic and policy forecast in ASugust Inflation Report. Although the timing is not perfect, the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will have an hour-long press conference after the meeting to explain the move and justify the MPC decision. August MPC meeting is also the last one for Ian McCafferty, a long-term hawk proposing interest rate hikes. McCafferty’s successor Jonathan Haskel appears to be more dovish, at least as long as his nomination hearing in the UK parliament is concerned and that would have shifted the MPC’s balance towards a more dovish stance.

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AUD/USD Weekly Forecast - 30 July - 3 August

The Australian Dollar posted a short-lived rally after positive employment data drove short-term domestic bond yields higher, however, the data isn’t likely strong enough to alter the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia. The data released earlier in the session showed the Australian economy added 50.9K jobs, a significant jump from the 16.7K forecast and the 13.4K previous reading. Read more...

USD - Major events in the week ahead

On Monday New Home Sales figures were released. Sales of new single-family houses in May 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 689,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 6.7 percent above the revised April rate of 646,000 and is 14.1 percent above the May 2017 estimate of 604,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2018 was $313,000. The average sales price was $368,500.

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EUR/USD Weekly Forecast - 2 July - 6 July

From Eurozone, on Monday, German Business Confidence figures were released. The ifo Business Climate deteriorated this month. The index fell to 101.8 points in June from 102.3 (seasonally adjusted) points in May. Companies were less satisfied with their current business situation. Their business expectations, by contrast, remained slightly optimistic. The tailwind enjoyed by the German economy is calming down. In manufacturing, the index fell due to poorer assessments of the current business situation. Manufacturers’ business expectations, by contrast, remained slightly optimistic. More manufacturers plan to ramp up production in the months ahead.

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