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AUD/USD Daily Forecast - 5 July

Yesterday’s session brought Australian Trade Balance and Retail Sales figures. In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,056m in May 2018, an increase of $83m on the surplus in April 2018. In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $827m in May 2018, an increase of $355m on the surplus in April 2018. In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $1,353m (4%) to $35,562m.

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EUR/USD Daily Forecast - 4 July

Yesterday, from Eurozone, Retail Sales data was published. In May 2018 compared with April 2018, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade did not change in the euro area (EA19) and increased by 0.3% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In April, the retail trade volume decreased by 0.1% in the euro area and increased by 0.3% in the EU28. In May 2018 compared with May 2017 the calendar adjusted retail sales index increased by 1.4% in the euro area and by 2.3% in the EU28.

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GBP/USD Daily Forecast - 4 July

Yesterday’s session brought UK Construction PMI figures. June data revealed a solid expansion of overall construction activity, underpinned by greater residential work and a faster upturn in commercial building. There were also positive signs regarding the near-term outlook for growth, as signalled by the strongest rise in new orders since May 2017 and the largest upturn in input buying for two-and-a-half years. The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) posted 53.1 in June, up from 52.5 in May and above the 50.0 no-change value for the third month running. The latest reading pointed to the sharpest overall rise in construction output since November 2017.

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AUD/USD Daily Forecast - 4 July

From Australia, yesterday, RBA interest rate decision was released. The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold as widely expected and emphasized the uncertain outlook. Inflation is below target, private investment is soft, and domestic demand is weak. There are well-known international sources of uncertainty too like trade, and the outlook for the Chinese economy. The low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy.

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