GBP/USD Weekly Forecast - 2 July - 6 July

From the UK, on Wednesday, CBI Realized Sales figures were released. Retail sales grew at the fastest pace since September 2017 in the year to June, according to our latest monthly Distributive Trades Survey. The survey of 106 firms, consisting of 45 retailers, also revealed that sales volumes were well above average for the time of year, following three months when they were below seasonal averages. Additionally, the survey reported a jump in growth in the volume of orders placed on suppliers.

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast - 2 July - 6 July

There were no data releases from Australia last week. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Official Cash rate is still at 1.50%, a record low and the longest unchanged interest rate in the country’s history. No changes are fully-priced into rate futures markets until the end of 2019. No wonder, perhaps then, that the poor old Aussie Dollar should be struggling. The problem for both Asia Pacific economies is, of course inflation; the lack of it, to be specific. While neither country is performing especially badly, particularly on the employment front, pricing power remains stubbornly absent. Japanese consumer price inflation got up to 1.5% in February of this year. That was a near three-year high and the sight of it raised hopes that the BoJ’s 2% target might be within reach.

USD - Major events in the week ahead

Events that marked the week:

On Monday ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data was published. The NMI® registered 59.5 percent, which is 0.4 percentage point lower than the January reading of 59.9 percent. According to the NMI®, 16 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector reflected the second consecutive month of strong growth in February. The decrease in the Employment Index possibly prevented an even stronger reading for the NMI® composite index. The majority of respondents’ continue to be positive about business conditions and the economy.

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast - 12 March - 16 March

Events that marked the week:

Focus of the Thursday's session was on ECB interest rate decision and the following press conference. The European Central Bank dropped a long-standing pledge on Thursday to increase its bond buying if needed, taking another small step in weaning the euro zone economy off its protracted stimulus. Keeping its broader policy unchanged, the ECB said it could still extend its 2.55 trillion euro ($3.16 trillion) bond purchase scheme beyond September if needed. But it skipped a reference to bigger purchases, a signal that it remains on track to end a three-year-old stimulus scheme before the end of 2018.