I think there are far too many headlines out there to suggest that the US dollar is going to soften longer-term. The United States economy is doing better than most others around the world, and of course the ECB is at least a year and a half away from raising interest rates. Longer-term fundamentals suggest that this pair should continue to go back and forth and perhaps even lower. I do recognize that the 1.15 level underneath is going to be a massive “floor.” The market participants continue to be pressed for clarity, and as a result I think we will see the overextension corrected, and I anticipate that the next 24 hours will probably be slightly negative. I’m not looking for a meltdown, just a correction.
EUR/USD Daily Forecast - 17 July
- Tuesday, Jul 17 2018
The EUR/USD pair has initially rallied during the trading session on Monday, reaching towards 1.1725 level. We did see a bit of a pushback at that point, as there was a significant amount of money flowing into the market to the downside from that level last week. It looks as if there is a lot of supplied overcome, so I think that we will probably pull back to find more demand, perhaps closer to the 1.1675 level underneath. However, if we break above the 1.1750 level, that will send this pair much higher, perhaps reaching towards the 1.1850 level above, which is the top of the longer-term consolidation.