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Notes: Euro reversed off basic trendline support extending off the 2017 lows late-last month with the pair rallying more than 2.3% ahead of key interest rate decisions over the next two days. The first major resistance hurdle is eyed at 1.1916/25 where the January low converges on the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range and the 52-week moving average. Ultimately a breach above yearly open resistance at 1.2005would be needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. Confluence support rests at 1.1606with the next key level of significance down at 1.1448.

Bottom line: The potential for a larger recovery remains while above the 1.16-handle. From a trading standpoint, I’m looking higher for now with an advance towards yearly open resistance to offer more favorable short-entries. Keep in mind that central bank rate decisions over the next few days are likely to fuel increased volatility in the EUR & USD crosses- watch the weekly close.