Will one side or the other win-out in the days ahead, or will it be another week-long bout of choppy price action? There will be a little more upside, but it may not be easy, so a continuation of last week’s wobbly price action will be unsurprising.

With a bit more strength, the euro will quickly find itself contending with the trend-line running lower from a swing-high in April passing over the high from the ECB-day. This could be enough to put a cap on a bounce and turn the euro back towards another test of support. Should we see a clean closing bar break of 11508, look for acceleration in selling.

Tactically speaking, it’s a tough spot here with strong support too close for fresh shorts, but not postured well enough to confidently establish a long position. For now, there is reservation to make a move until we have more information. Generally, though, the bias is towards eventually seeing another leg down.