Print this page

I wrote last Thursday that the recent failure of the Australian Dollar to strengthen against the USD was a bearish sign. This was a great call as the Australian Dollar has plummeted since then, creating a completely bearish technical picture with a dominant long-term bearish trend. Last weeks closing price was the lowest weekly close in over one year.

It would be foolish not to take a bearish bias when the USD is the strongest currency and the AUD one of the weakest. The price has been struggling to rise above the nearest resistance level at 0.7453 over recent hours but has failed to make the break. The longer it remains below that level the more bearish the picture will become although I would not be nervous for bears until the price is able to break above 0.7479.

I heave a bearish bias today. There is key central bank data due for release later which probably will not produce strong price movement but might have a meaningful impact.