While these views are hardly new, heard on-and-off over the course of this year, the RBA provided plenty of reasons in the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting as to why it has little desire to deliver a preemptive increase in the cash rate, pointing to rising risks from abroad, as well as ongoing constraints for Australia’s highly-indebted household sector, as a reason to sit tight for the foreseeable future. “Some of the downside risks to the global growth outlook had increased over the prior month,” the RBA said.

“Members noted that trade tensions extended beyond the United States and China, and could escalate through non-tariff measures such as administrative delays. “An escalation of trade tensions could harm global growth by undermining confidence and delaying investment decisions and could dampen international trade.”