The EUR/USD pair continues the bounce around just below the 1.16 level, and Friday provided no more clarity. All things being equal, I suspect that we could go down to the 1.15 handle, but it may take a certain amount of negativity in the markets to make that happen. I recognize that the 1.16 level will be resistive, but if we reclaim that area on a daily close, then I think we are simply looking at the symmetrical triangle being negated, and a return to the previous consolidation that had been such a major part of this market.

Friday jobs numbers are always difficult to trade, because quite frankly you never know what people are thinking. Perhaps they are squaring positions heading into the weekend, perhaps they are looking at longer-term macroeconomic figures, or perhaps they are just trying to play short-term ranges. Because of this, there’s not a lot you can glean out of this other than we are still below the 1.16 level. But I also see a massive amount of support at the 1.15 handle, so I think the downside is somewhat limited, although we could see a sudden rush towards that area. I would be a huge buyer at the 1.15 level at the first signs of a bounce, as I believe it could be a nice longer-term opportunity for those who can hang onto a trade for more than a few days.

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