Aussie registered a high at 7677 before pulling back sharply to close the week below the 76-handle (note the nearly perfect tag of former channel support extending off the 2016 low / 200-week moving average). So was that the high?
The verdict is still out but topside levels to keep in mind heading into the close of the month are the measured objective at 7709 and pitchfork resistance / 52-week moving average at 7760s. Both of these levels represent areas of interest for possible exhaustion IF indeed Aussie is going to hold this formation. Key support remains at 7481 with a break / close below needed to mark resumption of the broader down trend. Broader bearish invalidation remains steady with the yearly open at 7801.
Bottom line: The potential for a larger recovery remains while above the yearly low-week close at 7541 but we’re generally on the lookout for topside exhaustion on this stretch higher. From a trading standpoint, the immediate threat may still be higher for the Aussie in the days ahead but ultimately I’ll favor fading strength closer to structural resistance.
