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EUR/USD traded in a narrow range and suffered further losses. There is further evidence that growth in the euro-zone has peaked. German retail sales, factory orders, and industrial output all fell short of expectations. Euro-zone inflation is not going fast either, with core inflation sticking to 1%. In the US, job growth disappointed with only 103K in March, but wages accelerated to 2.7% y/y and other indicators still point to robust growth. Worries about trade have had a minor effect on the pair.

Major events in the coming week:

  1. German Trade Balance: Monday, 6:00. After recording 21.3 billion in January, a wider surplus of 23.1 is projected for February.
  2. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 8:30. The expansive survey of around 2800 investors. Following a drop from 30 points to 24 in March, another drop to 21.2 is expected.
  3. French Industrial Production: Tuesday, 6:45. After recording a big drop of 2% in its industrial output back in January, a bounce of 1.5% is on the cards for the February report.
  4. Mario Draghi talks Wednesday, 11:00. The ECB President, in a conference in Frankfurt will have an opportunity to respond to the growing signs of a slowdown in the euro-zone.
  5. French Final CPI: Thursday, 6:45.
  6. Industrial Production: Thursday, 9:00. After a dip of 1% in January, a 0.1% rise is projected.
  7. ECB Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 11:30. These are minutes from the ECB’s meeting in March, where forecasts were unchanged and Draghi downplayed his slightly more hawkish stance.
  8. Jens Weidmann talks Thursday, 16:00. The President of the German Bundesbank and the leading candidate to replace Draghi at the helm of the ECB will speak in Berlin. Weidmann is a hawk that supports raising rates in about a year.
  9. German Final CPI: Friday, 6:00. The flash estimate of Germany’s GDP came out slightly below expectations at 0.4% m/m. The final read is expected to confirm this figure.
  10. Trade Balance: Friday, 9:00. The euro zone’s trade surplus for January was slightly lower than usual but still high in absolute terms: 19.9 billion. A small rise to 20.2 billion is projected.

(All times are GMT)

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