USD - Major events in the week ahead

Friday, Jun 05 2015

Events that marked the week:

On Monday, Manufacturing PMI figures were released. The May PMI registered 52.8 percent, an increase of 1.3 percentage points over the April reading of 51.5 percent. Smaller increase to 51.9 percent was expected. Comments from the panel carry a positive tone in terms of an improving economy, increasing demand, and improving flow of goods through the West Coast ports. Also noted; however, are continuing concerns over the price of the US dollar and challenges affecting markets related to oil and gas industries.

On Wednesday ADP job figures and Trade Balance data was released. Private sector employment increased by 201,000 jobs from April to May according to the May ADP National Employment Report. This was mostly in line with market expectations. "The labor market moved back up to the 200,000 jobs added mark in May, a number which has been something of a bellwether for healthy employment growth,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP.

Latest report showed that the goods and services deficit in USA was $40.9 billion in April, down $9.7 billion from $50.6 billion in March, revised and better than forecasted deficit of $43.9 billion. April exports were $189.9 billion, $1.9 billion more than March exports. April imports were $230.8 billion, $7.8 billion less than March imports.

Thursday's session brought Unemployment Claims data. In the week ending May 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 276,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. Analysts were anticipating smaller decline to 280,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 282,000 to 284,000. The 4-week moving average was 274,750, an increase of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 271,500 to 272,000.

Friday's US session was marked by NFP figures. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 280,000 in May, compared with an average monthly gain of 251,000 over the prior 12 months. Smaller increase by 228,000 was forecasted. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care. Employment in mining continued to decline.

In May, both the unemployment rate (5.5%) and the number of unemployed persons (8.7 million) were essentially unchanged. Analysts were anticipating no change from April's 5.4%. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 8 cents to $24.96, what is 0.3% and above expected rise by 0.2%. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.3%. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 6 cents to $20.97 in May.

This week markets will be looking at:

JOLTS Job Openings (Tuesday 16:00)

Retail Sales (Thursday 14:30)

Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)

PPI (Friday 14:30)

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (Friday 16:00)

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